To the ACN, Osun State is important, as it is one of the states it currently controls. And these are obviously one of the strong the bargaining points that the ACN would be bringing to the table when the time to determine who gets what in the new political arrangement being engineered in the name of All Progressives Congress (APC).
Similarly, it has been said that the PDP also considers the South-West as very strategic to its existence and success at the national scene. Thus, the party is also expected not to take the issues of the governorship election coming up in the state next year with levity.
For the ACN, under the leadership of Governor Rauf Aregbesola, the advantage of incumbency will come handy. Political pundits have contended that if he performs well in office, the second term he is constitutionally allowed could be handed over to him by the people. It has also been said that being in control of the resources of the state and his party’s machineries would also be an advantage.
Though Aregbesola has been quoted many times as saying that his clinching the ACN ticket and winning a second term have become fait accompli, the possibility of other contenders from within the ACN springing up can also not be ruled out.
Analysts have also said that the experience of the last governorship election in Ondo State has taught many politicians some lessons. The contention is that there is a limit to the degree of success that factors of incumbency, access to state resources and even performance in office can offer. It was said that were it not for the assistance given to the ruling party and the incumbent Governor Olusegun Mimiko by some powerful elements in the PDP in the Ondo election, the PDP ironically, could have turned things the other way.
Similar scenario was said to have happened in Oyo State in the last governorship election, which the Accord Party was said to have helped the ACN to win, albeit, inadvertently. The contention is that had the breakaway faction of the PDP that made up Accord remained with it till the election time, their combined efforts and votes would have knocked out the ACN in the election.
“It is the PDP that is demonising Governor Aregbesola to discredit his good government. The people of Osun State like their governor and they will vote for him again,” an ACN member insisted.
But should the ACN give its ticket to the incumbent Governor Aregbesola, as many loyalists of the party have canvassed, he would still have stiff opposition to face. It has been learnt that of recent, despite the leadership crisis that rocked it, activities of another opposition political party, Labour Party (LP), have peaked in the Osun State. There are also other opposition parties that are said to be doing well. These smaller parties, many have reasoned, might not win the governorship contest per se, but they have the ability to diminish the votes that could accrue to the ruling party or any leading one.
Sunday Tribune’s findings show that the PDP is, by far, considered the biggest headache Aregbesola and the ACN would contend with over the occupation of the Government House, Oke-Fia in the second quarter of 2014. Analysts believe that the umbrella party parades some of the crème of Osun politics as aspirants to the Government House. Chief among these is former chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, Senator Iyiola Omisore. Apart from the experience of having operated at the national level, Omisore, it has been said, has also seen so much of Osun State politics as he is said to have wielded enormous influence during the days of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). That was a period he also served as deputy governor. Indeed, Sunday Tribune learnt that an indication of this enormous influence was seen during the 2003 elections, when the engineer won his party’s senatorial primaries even while in prison. It was this enormous influence that was instrumental in the PDP knocking out the government of Chief Bisi Akande in the keenly contested elections, which through Omisore won the election into the Senate in 2003.
Apart from Omisore, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Alhaji Fatai Akinbade, is interested in the PDP ticket. From Osun West senatorial district, his candidature, it was said, would give the ACN problems on account of his ability as a grassroots politician. That he served with the administration of former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola was also said to be a factor that could make him unseat the incumbent if given the ticket.
Another aspirant said to be capable of making the PDP to give the ACN a run for its money is former chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Security, Honourable Busayo Oluwole Oke. The former lawmaker, who is from the East senatorial district of the state, is also said to be giving the ACN some concern. He has erected billboards in strategic places all over the state. His posters are also said to litter different parts of the state, particularly, the capital, Osogbo.
Oke, who was in the National Assembly until 2011, is said to be liked by the youth.
There is also Senator Isiaka Adetunji Adeleke, another PDP politician from the West senatorial district, who is said to be making underground moves to get the party’s ticket. He is also regarded as a very experienced politician that could shock Aregbesola and the ACN. The PDP also has in its fold former Minister of Youth Development, Senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi. He is also said to be eyeing the party’s ticket for the 2014 governorship poll.
Apart from these, the PDP also parades an array of other politicians who are said to have been tested in their various previous endeavours and are interested in the governorship race. These include Fatai Sarumi, Lati Bakare, among others.
Nevertheless, those who understand politics of the PDP in Osun State have indicated that Senator Omisore is the best bet for the party, if it is ready to rout the ACN next year. The former lawmaker, who is from the Ife/Ijesa axis (Osun East senatorial district), is reputed to have a large financial war chest.
Also, of all those who have signified interest in the position from the PDP, Omisore is seen as one of the few that have political machinery on ground.he was said to have used its influence to facilitate Federal Government projects to the state.
However, one factor that may hurt the dream of those angling for the success of the former lawmaker is the issue of zoning. The current governor, though governing on the ticket of another party, is also from Osun East senatorial district as Senator Omisore.
This development, some have said might be played up by some people to discredit emergence of Omisore. But others have also seen this as an advantage. Theyargued that coming from the same senatorial district is not the issue but how will a candidate could perform.
But then,s it is said that the ACN think-tank understands this dynamics and is already working round the clock to ensure that the party continues its momentum in the South-West.
A source in the government confided in Sunday Tribune that the party’s think-tank team knew the challenges it could face in the forthcoming election and was prepared, saying they knew how to cage the PDP when the time comes.
Source: tribune.com.ng (Original title: Osun 2014: Different colours of an impending contest)
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